Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 3.670967 3.980776 4.320896 4.725169 5.196863 5.735293 6.404521
2025-02-09 3.291164 3.706765 4.194368 4.819844 5.618406 6.630543 8.058897
2025-02-16 2.990957 3.448507 4.008377 4.763865 5.791483 7.200725 9.408068
2025-02-23 2.778977 3.260979 3.870008 4.725379 5.951195 7.751456 10.860584
2025-03-02 2.609130 3.104533 3.746779 4.678984 6.075630 8.256110 12.390751
2025-03-09 2.469407 2.972383 3.638651 4.633431 6.183595 8.744190 14.068435
2025-03-16 2.363149 2.874706 3.565979 4.625974 6.341982 9.342700 16.236422
2025-03-23 2.295950 2.823655 3.551734 4.700324 6.639136 10.257853 19.664995
2025-03-30 2.190381 2.712038 3.441137 4.612167 6.643120 10.603890 21.867575
2025-04-06 2.095173 2.609244 3.335821 4.521298 6.627582 10.904316 24.184184
2025-04-13 1.991334 2.488932 3.197182 4.364331 6.470492 10.861965 25.355743
2025-04-20 1.953901 2.461458 3.195048 4.430873 6.740229 11.861107 31.549990
2025-04-27 1.940259 2.468458 3.246780 4.595557 7.234964 13.610761 44.915160
2025-05-04 1.911131 2.450901 3.258951 4.692637 7.611628 15.233900 64.127875
2025-05-11 1.851881 2.385384 3.191075 4.639610 7.656652 15.911371 79.878348
2025-05-18 1.800371 2.329207 3.134871 4.602822 7.732435 16.729740 104.786482
2025-05-25 1.750917 2.274046 3.077257 4.558417 7.784188 17.502154 141.358823
2025-06-01 1.704872 2.222256 3.022448 4.514802 7.831732 18.296232 202.272162
2025-06-08 1.668656 2.184151 2.988182 4.507661 7.967559 19.522220 367.621183
2025-06-15 1.648930 2.170699 2.994022 4.578845 8.313597 21.891377 2207.551232
2025-06-22 1.602711 2.114113 2.924406 4.494439 8.240796 22.305897 29895.978202
2025-06-29 1.558415 2.059243 2.855591 4.407388 8.150660 22.611808 NaN
2025-07-06 1.505184 1.988910 2.758069 4.256897 7.872458 21.840839 NaN